Original article from La Presse – LE PLACEMENT À ÉVITER by RICHARD DUFOUR.
1. What was this week’s most important event on the markets?
Despite last Friday’s deadly attacks in Paris and the subsequent aftermath of the tragedy, the markets defied expectations and rallied this past Monday to post their strongest session in weeks.
In addition to the stock markets being oversold leading up to the Paris attacks, investors have increasingly realized these tragic events have a more muted impact on economies and markets, despite the terrorists’ best efforts to create chaos and fear around the world. While there could be some fallout in the area of travel, which could undermine transportation, hotel and hospitality, retail and luxury stocks near term, the economy should prevail over the longer term, as consumption is deferred rather than eliminated. Also, the European Central Bank is likely to continue its quantitative easing program.
David Newman presented at the CITT Canada Logistics Conference on Tuesday October 27, 2015. The presentation highlighted the United States as an area of economic strength amidst a weaker global market, with international trade impacted by lower demand for commodities out of key markets like China, which has focused on building a consumer-driven economy versus developing its infrastructure. While the US consumer continues to buoy the US economy, the industrial sector is relatively tepid, given a deceleration in China, the weak energy and commodity markets and a rising US dollar. Canada should benefit from proximity to the US, its largest trading partner, and a weak Canadian dollar, which should support greater non-energy related exports. Of course, the US consumer continues to advance from a position of strength, with greater employment, strengthening income trends, improving consumer confidence, rising household formation and expenditures and lower household debt. This has stimulated southbound traffic out of Canada. Freight traffic has been relatively tepid, given weak industrial conditions, but ultimately the US consumer should prevail. We expect the global economy to tick upwards in 2016.
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David Newman is presenting at the CITT Canada Logistics Conference Tuesday October 27, 2015 regarding the 2016 Economic Outlook for the logistics industry. CITT “Canadian Institute of Traffic and Transportation” is the industry’s most experienced and valued source for logistics certification and expertise.