Thoughts on the Market: March Edition

Three Years of Talking About Inflation

We are experiencing a bit of Deja-vu as we write this monthly commentary. The market narrative continues to be dominated by inflation and interest rates, with equities rallying on hopes of rate cuts and selling off on reports of persistent inflation. Figure 1 highlights inflation rates for various economies since 2019. We have seen progress across the board, with the days of 5%+ inflation a distant memory. However, it will be the move from 3% to 2% that may prove the most challenging, particularly due to persistent inflation in services and a rebound in oil prices. Read