By Nidhi Chhatbar, CFA, CFP®
Investment Counsellor, Murray Wealth Group
Markets rarely give investors an all-clear signal. History suggests that staying invested, while remaining selective about what you own, can matter far more than trying to predict the next turning point.
After a period of heightened market uncertainty, waiting can feel like the prudent choice. War, tariffs, shifting interest-rate expectations and questions surrounding the pace of AI-driven growth have all contributed to periods of volatility. When headlines are moving quickly, it is understandable that investors may want to hold back, wait for greater clarity and put new capital to work once markets feel more predictable.
The problem is that markets rarely provide that moment. Waiting for the “right” time to invest is itself a market timing decision. It assumes that we will recognize both – when risk has peaked and when it is safe to return. History tells us that neither is particularly easy to do, which is why we believe time in the market matters more than timing the market.
Recovery Rarely Follows a Predictable Timetable
Every major market decline since 2000 has eventually been followed by a recovery, although the amount of time required has varied dramatically. The dot-com decline beginning in 2000 took roughly seven years to fully recover. Following the Global Financial Crisis, the recovery took approximately four years. The COVID-driven market decline in 2020 recovered in just five months, while the 2022 bear market took close to two years to recover.
The lesson is not that markets always recover quickly. The lesson is that the speed of recovery is extremely difficult to predict in advance. The nature of the decline matters, with an external shock potentially producing a very different market response from a structural reset in valuations, credit conditions or inflation. The magnitude of a decline alone tells us surprisingly little about how quickly the market may regain lost ground.
For investors, this creates an additional risk that is sometimes overlooked. Stepping out of the market may reduce exposure to some downside, but it also creates the challenge of deciding when to get back in. Missing the early stages of a recovery can have a meaningful impact on long-term returns.
The Odds Improve with Time
Short-term market returns can be unpredictable, but the historical picture changes considerably as an investor’s time horizon lengthens. Looking at rolling 10-year S&P 500 returns from 1938 through 2025, approximately 95% of those periods produced a positive annualized return, with negative periods appearing only briefly around the late 1930s and the Global Financial Crisis.
Equities do not move higher in a straight line, and individual time horizons, liquidity requirements and tolerance for risk remain important considerations. The historical record does, however, illustrate the importance of allowing investments sufficient time to compound and recover from inevitable periods of market weakness.
Staying Invested Requires Active Decision-Making
Remaining invested through a market cycle does not mean buying a portfolio and ignoring what happens next. At Murray Wealth Group, our investment process continuously re-evaluates each holding against its target price and the opportunities available elsewhere in the market.
Capital can then be rebalanced toward companies where we believe return potential is more attractive. The discipline is remaining invested, while the active decision is determining where that capital should be invested at any given point in the cycle.
That philosophy is reflected in both the Murray Wealth Global Equity Growth Fund and Income Growth Fund. Both remain fully invested through market cycles, using concentrated, bottom-up investment approach with approximately 30 to 45 holdings in Global Equity Growth and 25 to 35 holdings in Income Growth. Each holding carries a defined price target, allowing us to continually assess where capital may be most effectively deployed.
This approach allows us to express conviction through security selection and portfolio construction without relying on our ability to predict precise market entries and exits. It also keeps the investment process focused on the fundamentals, valuations and expected return potential of the businesses we own.
Discipline Through Very Different Markets
Our investment philosophy has been tested through several very different market environments. Since inception in June 2015, the Global Equity Growth Fund has generated a 15% annualized return and the Income Growth Fund 12.5% annualized, with both ranking in the top 15% of the RBC Pooled Fund Survey over 10 years. Those results span the 2018 market selloff, the rapid COVID decline and recovery and the 2022 bear market.
The experience of the past decade illustrates the role investment discipline can play through changing market environments. Navigating those periods did not require predicting the precise bottom of every decline. Our focus remained on the businesses we owned, their fundamentals, their valuations and the return potential available across the portfolio.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Staying Invested Still Involves Risk
A fully invested portfolio remains exposed to drawdowns and shorter-term volatility. Sequence-of-returns risk can also be particularly important for investors approaching or already in retirement, when withdrawals may make the timing of market declines more consequential. Time horizon, liquidity requirements and individual circumstances therefore remain critical considerations when determining an appropriate asset allocation.
The Dotcom and Global Financial Crisis periods are reminders that investors can spend years below previous market highs before a recovery is complete. Our concentrated, index-agnostic approach can also experience periods of underperformance relative to broad market benchmarks. That possibility is inherent in an investment strategy that is willing to differ meaningfully from an index in pursuit of long-term returns.
Managing a portfolio through market cycles requires acknowledging these risks as part of the investment process. Our objective is to construct portfolios with the quality, diversification and return potential required to navigate periods of volatility while remaining focused on each client’s long-term objectives.
The Decision That Matters
Periods of uncertainty naturally lead investors to question whether they should remain in the market. For long-term investors, we believe greater attention should be placed on the investments they own, the fundamentals supporting those investments and whether the portfolio continues to reflect their objectives.
Our investment team remains focused on those decisions throughout the market cycle. We continually reassess valuations, fundamentals and expected returns, repositioning capital when we believe more attractive opportunities are available. This allows us to remain invested with conviction while continuing to make active decisions about the composition of the portfolio.
Markets will continue to present periods of uncertainty. Geopolitical events, interest-rate decisions, valuation concerns and changing economic conditions can all make the future difficult to assess in real time. Clarity often arrives only in hindsight, which makes attempting to identify the perfect entry or exit point an inherently difficult strategy.
For long-term investors, a more durable discipline is to remain focused on time horizon, portfolio quality and the opportunities available within the market. Staying invested is only part of the equation. Knowing what you own, why you own it and when the investment case has changed is where active portfolio management continues to matter.
This commentary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell any securities. Specifically, Murray Wealth Group pooled funds are available only to “Accredited Investors” via an Offering Memorandum. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
