By: Michael Hakes CFA, MBA
As Waymo (An Alphabet/Google company), Tesla and Uber jockey for leadership in the high growth autonomous vehicle (AV) market, we continue to track the technological shifts shaping its rapid evolution. AV technology will affect several holdings in our Global Equity Growth Fund, but most exposed are our shares in Uber (currently a 3% weight in the Fund).
To that end, we are doing a deep dive into a partnership between Uber and Wayve, a U.K.-based startup pioneering “AV 2.0”, a new generation of autonomy powered by end-to-end, mapless AI rather than traditional rule-based systems. In so doing, we will also highlight how Wayve’s success could drive additional revenue growth for other of our holdings, such as Microsoft and Nvidia to highlight how AI is being used for more than just ChatGPT-like applications.
What does Wayve actually do?
Think of Wayve as company that is building the “brain” for self-driving cars. Instead of programming thousands of rules or relying on detailed maps, Wayve trains an AI system to learn how to drive by experience, just like a human driver. It observes real-world driving, learns patterns, and then applies that knowledge to new roads and cities without the need for special pre-mapped routes. This makes it more flexible and scalable than older approaches. This is described as AV 2.0.
To underscore the significance of this breakthrough, AV 1.0 relies on high-definition maps, hand-coded rules, and geo-fenced areas, which makes it expensive and hard to scale, while AV 2.0 uses a foundation-model approach that learns from real-world data, adapts to new environments, and eliminates the need for HD maps, making it more scalable and cost-efficient.
Why does this matter? Because scalability, not just technical capability, is the holy grail for the future of autonomous vehicles. Wayve’s hardware-agnostic design and licensing model aim to deliver exactly that.
How does a Wayve success story impact our holdings
Uber: Uber gains a pathway to autonomy without the capital burden of building its own technology stack. The first real-world test will be a London robotaxi pilot targeted for 2026, pending regulatory approval. This pilot will operate at Level 4 (L4) autonomy, meaning that the vehicle can drive itself without human input in defined conditions, though a remote operator may still monitor.
If Wayve succeeds, Uber will improve its competitive position and penetration with driverless rides. This should both have a positive effect on margins and grow the ridesharing and delivery pie.
NVIDIA: Wayve’s AI models require serious computing power for both training and inference. That means more demand for NVIDIA’s Graphics Processing Units and DRIVE platform, cementing its role as “the AI engine of mobility.”
If Wayve succeeds, NVIDIA will strengthen its dominance in AI computing for mobility. While small compared to its massive datacenter business, Automotive and robotics revenue grew 69% year over year last quarter and is now a $2.4B run rate.
Microsoft: Wayve runs on Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform, for cloud compute and simulation. As AV models scale, so does the need for hyperscale cloud infrastructure, making Microsoft a critical enabler.
Microsoft deepens its cloud footprint in a high-growth vertical if Wayve succeeds. We expect future Azure (its cloud computing business) growth will be led by industry specific AI investment, versus its current growth, which is heavily dependent on ChatGPT/OpenAI usage.
Together, these three create a powerful ecosystem: Uber brings the network, NVIDIA the hardware backbone, and Microsoft the cloud muscle. Wayve’s trajectory accelerated in May 2024, when it raised money, led by SoftBank, joined by NVIDIA and Microsoft. Uber followed with a strategic investment later that year, aligning financial and operational interests. Total funding now tops $1.3B, giving Wayve the resources it needs to push its embodied AI vision forward.
Autonomy won’t flip overnight, but the pieces are aligning. This, partnership is one to track closely. The Uber–Wayve alliance, backed by NVIDIA and Microsoft, is not only a tech story, but a strategic play on the future economics of transportation.