This war is a human tragedy and breaks the world order that has held since the end of WW2, as did the Korean War and Vietnam War. All these wars were fought on the edges of the East/West political divide.

Ukraine has been part of the East for all of modern history until the removal of the last Russian puppet president, Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. Restoring a Russian puppet has been Putin’s focus for the last decade. His population is also suffering from a rapidly declining standard of living, and he must distract them. Russia spends 4.3% of its GDP on the military, the third-highest globally and ahead of the U.S at 3.7%. This has punished the population’s standard of living. Guns or Butter is the economic expression for this and refers to a governments’ allocation of military spending versus civilian spending. Putin may end up like Gorbachev, with an economy crushed by military spending and a very unhappy population. Putin’s only hope is Vodka and its tempering the enthusiasm for protest. Putin does have higher oil prices, decent foreign reserves and perhaps a supportive China on his side. Read